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1、行业综述与重大事件点评
　　1.1、11月份机械行业增长继续减速
　　根据机械工业联合会统计，1-11月份国内机械行业完成产值82660.95亿元，比去年同期增长25.1%，增速比上月（26.5%）回落1.4个百分点。其中11月份单月的产值为7612.2亿元，同比增长10%，增速比去年11月份降低18.9个百分点，机械行业增速大幅放缓的趋势依然没有好转。
　　目前除了国内机械需求放缓外，国外的机械需求放缓趋势比国内更为明显。1-11月份国内机械行业出口交货值12324.1亿元，比去年同期增长18.2%，增速比上月（20.1%）下降1.9个百分点，比去年同期下降12.6个百分点，继续呈逐月下降的走势。从单月机械产品出口情况来看，近几个月机械产品出口减速的趋势更为显著。11月份，机械行业出口增速已降到只有2%的历史新低，明显低于同期全国出口增速，失去了出口发动机的作用，显示出海外需求急速萎缩的情况非常明显。
　　分子行业来看，今年1-11月份农业机械、工程机械、机械基础件、机床工具和石化设备是增长最快的子行业，其产值的增长速度都超过或者接近30%，不过从11月份的产值增长来看，则是农业机械，主要是饲料加工和棉花采摘机械，重型矿山设备和石化通用设备增长最快，增长速度也都降到了20%左右。1-11月份，内燃机、文化办公和汽车行业是增长最慢的机械子行业，增速都在20%以下，11月份，内燃机、文化办公和汽车行业的产值更是出现了负增长，表明最近几个月行业的景气度在显著下滑。
　　虽然1-11月份机械行业各子行业的产值增长速度大多依然在20%以上，但是从8月份开始都有显著的减速，而且目前国内和国外的机械需求仍没有复苏的迹象和动力，因此我们认为机械行业的增长减速趋势仍将蔓延，整个行业的基本面依然没有见底。从上市公司业绩角度考虑，农业机械虽然增速一直保持快速增长，但是行业分散，没有明显的强势上市公司，因此不值得推荐。未来基本面上相对稳健的子行业依然将是铁路设备和航空设备制造，其次重型设备和工程机械领域也由于受益于工业投资重型化和四万亿的中央政府主导投资而会相对较好。
　　1-11月份，国内起重设备的增速已经由最快增长42%降低到11月份的14.4%，泥土设备10和11月份的产量同比增长30%以上，且有明显回升趋势。
　　虽然从国内销售来看，起重机和混泥土设备生产增长有企稳的迹象，但是都不稳定，特别是工程机械11月份的出口增长已经从70%以上的增速降低到1.6%，因此相关上市公司四季度的业绩应该会进一步降低，不过建议关注三一重工和中联重科。机床行业，11月份数控机床产量同比减少34.4%，继续出现逐月显著减速的趋势，表明机床行业，乃至高端机床行业的景气程度都在明显下降。集装箱方面，11月份的负增长也更是达到80%以上，以中集集团为主的龙头企业更是部分停产，因此海运设备方面也相当不景气。因此相关行业给予"回避"的投资评级。
　　内燃机和传动行业，11月份内燃机产量同比减少45.5%，轴承和齿轮传动设备的负增长趋势也更为明显，其中，轴承11月份产量下降14.2%，齿轮传动下降7.8%，都较10月份进一步恶化。由于这些行业与汽车行业更为相关，而汽车行业的不景气仍没有出现改善的迹象，因此我们给予相关行业"回避"的投资评级，仅相对看好产品主要为铁路和重型设备配套的上市公司，如晋西车轴、东力传动等。
　　1.2、重点上市公司资讯与重大事件点评
　　中国南车（601766）谨慎买入
　　12月15日，中国南车公告称目前公司株洲公司已经停产，要明年春节前后才会逐步开始复产，同时公司已经在生产的40台八轴大功率电力机车由于只是和铁道部的口头约定，目前还没有签订正式合同，有媒体也认为存在合同被取消的危险。
　　按照公司的公告，株洲公司的停产主要和以销定产的经营模式有关。由于新订单需要到明年春节后才能够实施，因此目前需要停产，而且这类事情以前也发生过，属于正常情况。而40台机车可能被取消，公司认为目前还在洽谈中，并不认为一定会取消。
　　我们认为，铁路牵引机车的电力化是"十一五"规划的要求，目前的机车牵引电气化率还只有30%，因此未来电力机车的空间广阔。国内目前有能力生产大功率电力机车的公司只有南车和北车，其中南车的电力机车实力更强，因此我们不认为该类事件会对公司的业绩产生实质影响，依然看好公司业绩的增长。不过目前公司PE估值高达30倍，因此给予"谨慎买入"的投资评级。
　　华东数控（002248）中性
　　12月29日，华东数控公告称公司已获得中铁十八局集团公司为石武客运专线河南段项目段提供3100万元博格式轨道板专用数控磨床的合同，相当于2007年度营业收入的7.78%。除了29日的合同外，28日公司还和其他十家单位签订了1.6亿的博格式轨道板专用数控磨床合同。
　　由于博格式轨道板专用数控磨床是高速铁路轨道所必须的加工设备，因此在国家大规模修建高速铁路的前提下，看好其未来两年的增长前景。不过公司目前相对估值高达34倍，已经充分反映了该合同的正面影响，因此给予"中性"评级。
　　西北轴承（000595）中性
　　12月9日，西北轴承公告称公司收到宁夏回族自治区人民政府发出的《自治区人民政府关于减免西北轴承股份有限公司欠税的批复》，主要内容为免征历年所欠缴的企业所得税、教育费附加欠费等税金及滞纳金共计20,646,270.1元，相当于今年前三季度净利润的50%，预计可提升每股收益约0.08元。
　　西北轴承主要生产石油机械轴承、冶金轧机轴承、工程机械轴承和重载汽车轴承，前三季度公司的收入逐季萎缩的趋势比较明显，从四季度开始，国内工程机械销量开始明显负增长，同时钢铁、石化和汽车的行业景气也明显下滑，因此公司主要市场需求短期内仍将继续低迷，本次一次性的税收抵免难以给公司33倍的PE估值带来支撑，因此给予"中性"评级。
　　2、行业指数与重点上市公司市场表现
　　12月份机械行业总体上涨1.42%，表现强于沪深300指数同期下跌2.49%的表现。从机械各子行业的表现来看，涨幅最大的依次是航天军工、工业装备和轴承制造类股票。对机械行业指数下跌贡献最大的子行业是工程机械、金属制品和仪表制造类股票。12月份航天军工行业表现较好的主要原因在于市值相对偏小，而且在中国航空工业整合的概念刺激下，引领了本月的超跌反弹。工业装备类股票回转支承的开发环境受影响,因此想要得到好的回转支承效果,就必须提供一个良好的回转支承环境.
山东龙兴在混合机的生产过程中非常的注重质量.在混合机行业内达到了非常强大的成功.
我们公司一直使用DHL快递提供的快递服务.dhl快递在快递行业内一直处于佼佼者,我们也一直在执行着dhl快递服务的宗旨表现较好的主要原因在于基本面依然相对较好，而且超跌反弹。工程机械行业虽然有国家4万亿主导投资的刺激，但是该消息已经在前期有充分的反映，而且基本面恶化较为迅速，因此出现了13.4%的较大跌幅。
　　12月第一创业重点推荐的机械类股票整体下跌6.84%，表现弱于沪深300指数同期2.49%的跌幅，也明显弱于关注类机械股票同期1.42%的涨幅表现。主要原因是12月份推荐的三一重工和柳工等都是工程机械类大市值股票，该行业11月份已经因国家4万亿投资的消息刺激引领大盘反弹，涨幅较高，但是其10月、11月份的基本面却在加速恶化，因此成为本月下跌最大的板块，导致推荐类股票投资组合跑输指数。
　　3、下月投资策略与投资组合
　　由于国内经济增长形势明显变化，因此12月份继续给予重型机械设备和铁路设备子行业"推荐"的投资评级，其他子行业给与中性评级。在重点推荐的股票方面，由于我们推荐的投资组合弱于行业和沪深300表现，而且机械行业的整体跌幅已经持续领先于市场整体水平，相对估值已比较合理，因此继续推荐天地科技、太原重工和三一重工，同时将基本面继续恶化的振华港机和昆明机床调出，新增晋西车轴和房源支承为我们的重点推荐股票。
　　晋西车轴（600495.SH）
　　国内最大的铁路货车轴承生产商，主要产品包括铁路轴承和铁路货车制造，其中铁路货车轴承市场分额在国内超过1/3。今年前三季度实现销售收入11.1亿，同比增长48.2%，实现净利润5581万，同比增长43.5%。
　　虽然公司的销售净利率只有5%，但是由于未来两年铁路车辆的采购额将有成倍的增长，因此增长前景基本不会受到当前危机的影响，可以保持相对稳定。同时公司还在开拓铁路高档客车轴承市场，因此有一定的增长空间。预计公司完成收购北方锻造公司后将成为世界最大的铁路轴承制造商。
　　预计公司2008年可以生产车轴11.5万根，销售各种车轴10.5万根；子公司晋西铁路车辆公司2008年预计生产销售各种铁路货车1600辆，预计可实现营业收入15.3亿元左右，净利润接近7600万，EPS为0.74元/股，给与"谨慎买入"评级。
　　方圆支承（002147.SZ）
　　公司是国内最大的回旋支撑生产商，目前回转支承产品用在工程机械行业领域的占60%左右，这其中1/3产品给挖掘机提供配套。今年前3季度，公司实现收入2.79亿元，同比增长29.8%，实现净利润7428万元，同比增长135.1%。
　　由于公司的主要产品主要面对工程机械，特别是挖掘机、起重机以及压力机，而这些工程机械品种也是本次大规模铁路和道路建设的需求最大的品种，因此其产品销量下滑的速度应该会小于其他工程机械品种，因此可以相对看好。
　　目前公司还在扩产精密级小圈和大圈等高端回旋支承产品，将可以进一步提升公司的盈利能力。因此我们预计08年公司EPS可以达到0.57元，给予"谨慎买入"的投资评级。
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